Guide

Important context

EdgeDex metrics are model outputs designed to help you compare products consistently. They are not personal investment advice, and they are not guarantees of future prices. Terms like Model Signal, acceptable entry price, and acceptable exit price are generated from formulas and assumptions using currently available data.

Sealed metrics

1) High-case evaluation

For sealed sets, the core long-term metric is the high-case evaluation. This is a calculation of a possible booster box value around seven years after a set is released, and is derived from the value of the cards within a set (particularly the top chase cards).

2) Linear growth evaluation

We then estimate what the product would be worth today if it moved from RRP to the high-case value in a straight line.

Linear growth evaluation = RRP + (age in years / 7) × (high-case evaluation - RRP)

3) Target value

This is the average of the high-case and linear growth evaluation.

4) Opportunity scores

Opportunity scores are a comparison between the target value and the current market price.

Opportunity = Target value / Market price

This is primarily a comparative metric across similar products. It is not a direct promise of how much a product will rise.

5) Model Signal

Model Signal is simply the opportunity score translated into plain language for faster reading.

• ≥ 2.00x: Undervalued; buy now.
• 1.50x to 1.99x: Slightly undervalued; hold.
• 1.00x to 1.49x: Fairly valued; hold or sell.
• < 1.00x: Overvalued; avoid or sell.

This is not a separate model. It is the opportunity score expressed as text. Since the opportunity score is a calculated estimate and not a prediction, this should not be interpreted as a personal recommendation.

6) Acceptable entry price / acceptable exit price

These are threshold-based model outputs derived from target value. They reflect what the market price would need to be in order to have an opportunity score of 1.75x and 1.25x respectively.

Acceptable entry = target value / 1.75

Acceptable exit = target value / 1.25

Again, they are formula outputs based on fixed threshold assumptions, not personalized recommendations.

Singles metrics

1) Singles Opportunities

V.Score (Value Score) is a model value estimate built from supply/scarcity inputs and demand inputs. In the background, EdgeDex builds a market curve showing how card prices relate to scarcity across the full card pool. It then compares a card's Elo percentile with the equivalent point on that market curve to estimate the scarcity-to-price relationship a card with that level of demand would be expected to have. That relationship is then converted into a Value Score using the card's actual scarcity.

Signal compares modeled value against market price, and is used to rank relative opportunity.

2) Grading Opportunities

Gem Rate is the percentage of graded examples that received Gem Mint (10). Reliability depends on sample size: larger samples are generally more stable, smaller samples are noisier.

Grading EV = (Gem Rate × PSA 10 price) - grading cost - raw price

Return = (Grading EV + raw price) / raw price

Edge leans toward higher expected dollar EV.

Upside leans toward higher return multiple.

Overall combines both, with a slight weighting toward Edge.

3) Slab Opportunities

Raw-to-Gem = Raw price / PSA 10 price

Lower values mean raw is cheaper relative to PSA 10 price. Higher values mean PSA 10 is cheaper relative to raw price.

Deal = (1 - Gem Rate) × Raw-to-Gem ratio

This represents the overall cheapness of the slab, or how good of a deal the slab is. It multiplies the difficulty of getting a 10 by the price ratio between raw and a 10.

Slab Signal = Deal × Signal^0.75

This is the overall ranking metric for the slab. It combines the deal score with the general card opportunity signal. So the slab signal combines both the current cheapness of the slab relative to raw, and the potential upside of the raw card itself.

Portfolio metrics

Target value, Target Gap, Acceptable Sell

Target value for a position is target value multiplied by quantity. Target value is: (high-case evaluation + linear growth evaluation) / 2

Target Gap = Target value - Market value

Positive gap means market is below model target. Negative gap means market is above model target.

Acceptable Sell = Target value / 1.25. If market price is at or above this level, the position is treated as sellable in analysis.

Immature, Maturing, Mature, Sellable

• Immature: opportunity ≥ 1.50
• Maturing: opportunity ≥ 1.00 and < 1.50
• Mature: opportunity < 1.00
• Sellable: opportunity < 1.25

These labels are for comparison between products and do not reflect predictions or recommendations regarding the lifecycle timing of products.

What Portfolio Analysis does

Portfolio Analysis is a reinvestment simulator:

• It finds sellable positions (market at/above acceptable sell price).
• It computes a sale budget from those positions at current market prices.
• It simulates reinvestment into current opportunities using that budget.
• It compares current model positioning versus potential post-reinvestment positioning.

This is a simulation, not a guarantee.

How to use this safely

Use these metrics to compare opportunities and prioritize research. Do not treat any single metric as a guaranteed outcome, and always validate with your own judgment before acting.